PF is dead, delivered victory to either UPND or MMD

Mulusa Lucky

Lucky Mulusa

By Lucky Mulusa

Interesting times are upon us and for anyone who takes time off to think, they will realise that life has no linear formula and neither is the formula exponential in nature.

Rather, life is a culmination of several factors all of which are dominant. Any scheming at an individual level can only go so far and cannot be the whole determining factor for the final eventuality. It is this fact that has led the PF to its early demise as a dominant political force.

The PF’s ascendance to power was on the back of three factors; the peoples’ desire to simply see change just for the sake of it; the MMD’s perceived mistakes; and the resolve and determination of one Michael Chilufya Sata.

Born out of such a loose combination of factors outside the PF’s own making meant that the party had no firm foundation to survive the test of incumbency, in which it was up against the MMD’s record in government. The final blow has been the passiveness and gradual detachment of its rallying factor – Sata.

The question then is – what is the most likely outcome of Zambia’s political landscape given the demise of the PF? Before answering that question, it is important that the facts around the demise of the PF are unpacked for the doubting Thomases. The PF started as a result of Mr. Sata’s frustration that he had been ignored as heir to the throne in the MMD in favour of Mwanawasa.

Given his political background, he had everything it needed to take to start his own political party. However, his lack of any discernible ideological orientation robbed the new party of the resilience that comes with broad ownership emanating from broadly shared ideals. This is a factor that drove the MMD from individual initiators’ ownership to a broadly owned party founded on broadly based ideals.

This is what underwrites the MMD’s resilience. MMD will not die – not just yet. But PF is dying – dying a moderately to a fast paced death. The demise of the PF will create interesting scenarios. Two dominant factions will emerge. One headed by GBM (Defence Minister Geoffrey Mwamba) and the other by Kabimba (Justice Minister and PF CEO). The GBM faction will largely remain intact.

Reality is that the PF currently cannot win a general election to retain power. Its capabilities will even be further eroded when the party splits. The two factions will therefore look for partners. The GBM group will be more attracted to the MMD. If this happens, MMD will emerge the strongest party in Zambia after swallowing the biggest chunk from the PF carcass.

The other group headed by Kabimba will find themselves unattractive to anyone for a while. This is because amongst this group will be the cartel that caused everybody including the PF trouble. It will have antagonised everybody but not everybody in this group will be to blame. To buy political relevance, this group will rid itself of the members of the cartel.

This will not be difficult to achieve especially that the cartel comprises very few members – just about five to be specific and Kabimba is one of them. Dispensing with them will not be a problem. The only loss will be in form of access to ill-gotten wealth and favourable media coverage.

After getting rid of the cartel, the Kabimba-less faction will be swallowed by the UPND. This scenario perhaps explains why there seems to be lack of unity within the opposition currently. The reason is simple. Fate cannot allow the MMD and the UPND to combine at the moment. The spirit of confusion which is conspicuously apparent is purposeful.

The combination of the MMD and the UPND would create a one party state because there would be no opposition. The PF is dying – in fact, it is dead. The battle for the soul of the nation will be between the MMD and the UPND in 2016. The scenario also explains why the MMD has been in hibernation. The MMD has done nothing to reinvigorate its structures.

The party has done nothing to defend itself from claims that the party is dead. The reason is simple – this would have strengthened the PF. Seeing that the PF had no opposition especially from the MMD, the party had no catalyst for internal unity promotion. It therefore turned its energies against itself.

The end result is that the biggest enemy of the PF is the PF itself. The PF has finally delivered potential victory to either the MMD or the UPND. Indeed, life has no linear formula. What started as efforts to eliminate the opposition by the PF, has ended in a strengthened opposition and a dead PF.

This is the way I see it purely through the lens of deductive reasoning. I may therefore not be entirely correct especially that life has no linear formula. Speculation remains the game.

Lucky Mulusa, MP. Solwezi Central Constituency.